Let the tyres explode!

President Museveni has managed to keep his movement cadres in line by instilling fear of a ruthless reprimand should any even dream of rebellion. The treatment meted out to NRM hotshots like Gilbert Bukenya and Gen. Henry Tumukunde just to teach them a lesson is enough reminder that the commander in chief is not to be slighted.

This tactic has never come in handier than now when the party feels threatened by the rising popularity of its former secretary general Amama Mbabazi who it is believed will be looking to score a good number of defections from the ruling party to bolster his presidential campaign

Amama Mbabazi’s open rebellion and breaking of ranks with the top General that many believed was grooming a successor in the now Go forward candidate has only heightened the paranoia and suspicion that has come to characterize the seat of power as Museveni attempts to extend his grip on power to 34 years.

Despite writing off the former premier NRM loyalists were dismayed when Amama managed to unhitch his wagon from the yellow bus and remain politically relevant. The meticulously organized former premier has not only managed to keep his head above water but has used the momentum of his much publicized ejection from the NRM fold to launch a formidable presidential bid that has seen the NRM leadership running around in circles to purge the party of any Amama influence.

During happier times

The fact that RDCs showed open support and even lent assistance (read soldiers) to certain preferred candidates in the chaotic NRM primaries is proof that the specter of Amama’s influence is seen as a real and much dreaded threat to the party’s success in 2016.

In the course of one week last month two NRM loyalists attributed their failure in the primaries to the undue influence or harassment from the RDCs of their respective districts. Omodo Omodo the NRM vice chairperson of the youth league blamed his loss in the Oyam North primary on the RDC of Oyam who deployed security personnel to oversee the theft of votes that would hand victory to Col. Okello Ongola.

Omodo has since pledged his allegiance to Amama Mbabazi along with a sizeable contingent of former contestants in the NRM primaries

While the Ibanda North MP Xavier Kyooma was reportedly shocked by the Ibanda RDCs complicity in the blatant vote rigging that was masterminded to ensure his rival Guma Gumisiriza won the primary election, Kyooma could only offer guesses as to which party boss was behind this kind of injustice, but what was clear is that he was being labelled as an Amama sympathizer.

Amama may or may not have any kind of sway over NRM members but the party top brass are not taking any chances, the rank and file seem to have latched onto this mood and are now conniving and scheming to take advantage of this state of affairs in order to malign and discredit opponents.

As if sensing that this trend was bound to flare into a major crisis the president moved to persuade party delegates at the recently concluded delegate’s conference not to label each other as Mbabazi stooges stating with emphasis that the former premier has no hold on party members.

The president may have sounded convincing but it is an open secret that this election will surpass all previous ones in the amount of resources the incumbent will employ to neutralize the threat posed by the presidential bids of two former comrades in arms.

This is why it is a matter of life and death for NRM party members to win the party flag in MP and local government races, this is why the primaries have been plagued by open rigging and ugly violence – the party’s blessing arrives with a considerable war chest and military musclemen that any politician will kill to possess.

But with two formidable opponents to defuse this time around how much money is enough? Could this be the year of the run off? Is what some analysts are asking – and if such a scenario were to materialise will one opposition candidate throw his weight behind the runner up to the incumbent? Is the question I’m posing as I muse over this fascinating election.

Anyway, as we normally say in Luganda at the start of an engaging contest – Zaabike emipiira

LET’S HIT RESET!

The unsightly and despicable scenes of police brutality playing out on the political scene ahead of the 2016 elections may look familiar and indeed involve the same protagonists who grab our attention every election season, However this time around the fulcrum of the power struggle as the polls fast approach is a repressive law that has become a common talking point as the ruling party unleashes wanton terror on its opponents to uneven the playing ground in favor of the incumbent.

The public order management act has now become a recurrent source of contention and conflict between angry opposition activists and the police.

Enacted amidst controversy and dramatic scenes in parliament in 2013 the act was a deliberate and sinister ploy by the NRM regime to shackle opposition activities and render political parties and their sympathizers immobile.

Many opposition activists have rightly argued ad nauseam that the law infringes on the fundamental right to freedom of assembly and association as spelt out in Article 29 of the constitution, the proponents of the law argue that those rights need to be regulated to maintain peace and order.

No one is disputing that line of debate but any regulation must not repudiate the inalienable rights of citizens.

Without going into specifics the law gives the Inspector General of police sweeping powers to determine, decide and rule if and when or where a public meeting will take place.

And even though public meetings by organs of registered political parties and convened in accordance with the constitution of the party were excluded from the definition of the term public meeting in section 4(2) e of the act, the government has characteristically targeted political parties in an uncompromising vicious crackdown on gatherings.

Following his unconstitutional arrest in Njeru Presidential aspirant Amama Mbabazi was wrong when he claimed the police have no right to halt a meeting, they do have the power under this unfair act. Advocates of this law will say there is no violation of freedoms and that all there is, is a requirement to seek permission to hold any public gathering or assembly or if unable to, consider another date and venue. I have always thought that this ‘permission’ is akin to me seeking authorization to write this article and only if said permission is given can I go ahead to publish.

You cannot put a caveat on freedoms, if any regulation is necessary it must be seen to facilitate rather than eliminate one’s civil liberties. The police must not be allowed to bar one from carrying out a peaceful demonstration but they can bar any protestor from accessing certain roads or buildings for the purpose of maintaining order. Just about the only useful aspect of the law is Section 12 and 13 that gazette restricted areas.

Of course this opinion has always been disputed by NRM party Loyalists who view any demonstration or protest as a threat to the their continued stay in power, The NRM more than anyone else knows the power of movements and just how potent effective mobilization for a common cause can be. Their morbid fear of demos was only compounded by the Arab spring and more recently the overthrow of Burkina Faso president Blaise Compaore’ by popular revolt late last year.

Kate Byom wrote on the Freedom house blog in August last year that the laws like Uganda’s POMA are so broadly worded and frequently misused that they effectively deny or restrict the ability of citizens to demonstrate.

She goes on to say “Public order acts are common across the continent, partly as a holdover from colonial rule but the governments of Uganda, Zimbabwe and Swaziland are modern pioneers of sorts, demonstrating to their peers how these laws can be adjusted and employed to limit the opposition’s ability to mobilize support.

As a heavily militarized police continues to do the NRM regime’s bidding, the ugly scenes currently being witnessed will only accelerate into an ugly climax with no winner. Playing with loaded dice the NRM will claim victory none the less in 2016, ushering in another five years of doom and gloom for lovers of civil liberties and transparency.